Free retirement withdrawal calculator
How much can you withdraw in retirement—and how long might it last?
Test the 4% rule against your balance, timeline, inflation, fees, and changing market returns. Compare income today with the resilience you may need decades from now.
Free · no accountPrivate in your browserResearch reviewed July 2026
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Test a retirement withdrawal—not just a percentage
Choose the question you want to answer. The calculator keeps withdrawals level in today’s purchasing power and stress-tests the same plan across changing return sequences.
First-year withdrawal
$30,000 / year$2,500 per month, before taxInitial rate4.0%
Steady-return pathMoney remains$251,169 after 30 years
Stress-test result334 of 500paths still had money at year 30
How the portfolio could changeToday’s dollars · withdrawals rise with inflation
10th percentileMedian90th percentile
NowYear 10Year 20Year 30
One balance, three starting rates
See the income–resilience tradeoff
See the steady-return path by year
| Year | Annual withdrawal | Remaining balance |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | $750,000 |
| 5 | $30,000 | $691,253 |
| 10 | $30,000 | $624,403 |
| 15 | $30,000 | $548,331 |
| 20 | $30,000 | $461,767 |
| 25 | $30,000 | $363,262 |
| 30 | $30,000 | $251,169 |
The short answer
The 4% rule is a starting point, not a safety certificate.
The classic guideline begins with a first-year withdrawal equal to 4% of the retirement portfolio. The retiree then increases that dollar amount with inflation—not by recalculating 4% of the new balance every year. A $750,000 portfolio therefore starts at $30,000 a year, or $2,500 a month, before tax.
A better question than “Is 4% safe?”
What withdrawal can your household adapt to?
A resilient plan connects portfolio withdrawals with Social Security, pensions, taxes, healthcare, retirement length, and the ability to spend less after poor markets. This page deliberately isolates the portfolio first, then provides a path into the full household calculation.
How this 4% rule calculator works
You can start from either direction: choose an initial withdrawal rate to estimate first-year income, or enter the annual income you want and see the implied rate. Withdrawals remain level in today’s purchasing power, which means the nominal dollar amount would rise with the inflation assumption.
First-year withdrawal
starting portfolio × initial withdrawal rateExample: $750,000 × 4% = $30,000 in year one. At 2.5% inflation, the next nominal withdrawal would be $30,750, even though both are represented here in today’s dollars.
The steady-return line applies one constant return after fees and inflation. The stress test instead runs 500 reproducible return sequences around the selected assumption. It reports how many paths still contain money at the chosen horizon. That frequency is an illustration of model behavior—not a forecast of your probability of success.
Where the 4% rule came from
William Bengen’s 1994 historical analysis examined retirement withdrawals across difficult U.S. market periods. The work tested a first-year percentage followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals and found that roughly 4%—4.15% in part of the original discussion—survived at least 30 years in the historical cases and stock/bond allocations studied.
That is narrower than the way “4% rule” is often repeated online. It was based on U.S. historical data, particular portfolio mixes, rebalancing, and a finite horizon. Future inflation, valuations, returns, taxes, fees, and an individual household can differ.
3%, 4%, or 5%: the income–resilience tradeoff
| Starting rate | First year | Per month | What changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $22,500 | $1,875 | Less income; more room for weak returns or a longer horizon |
| 4% | $30,000 | $2,500 | Classic 30-year historical guideline; still not guaranteed |
| 5% | $37,500 | $3,125 | More income; greater dependence on returns and spending flexibility |
FINRA notes that there is no one-size-fits-all withdrawal percentage and that expert views often cluster in a broad 3%–5% range. The useful number depends on when retirement begins, the portfolio, other income, taxes, longevity, and whether spending can adjust.
Why the order of returns matters
Average return does not tell the whole story after withdrawals begin. Two retirees can earn the same average return but experience it in a different order. A large decline early in retirement, combined with withdrawals, can permanently reduce the capital available for a later recovery.
Early lossesHarder to recover
Withdrawals remove shares while prices are depressed.
Later lossesMore runway first
Earlier growth may leave a larger cushion before the decline.
The stress paths in the calculator make this risk visible. They should not be interpreted as market predictions: the chosen return and variability are assumptions, and real returns are not perfectly normally distributed.
Inflation and fees quietly change the answer
Inflation determines how quickly withdrawals must rise to preserve purchasing power. Fees reduce the portfolio that remains invested and able to compound. Investor.gov emphasizes that even fees that appear small can have a major long-term effect because they reduce both the account and the returns that amount could have earned.
The calculator subtracts the annual fee assumption from each modeled return and expresses balances in today’s dollars. It does not estimate fund-specific expenses, adviser billing, trading costs, or taxes. Use the combined fee you can reasonably identify and confirm it against account disclosures.
A flexible withdrawal plan can be more realistic
Real households rarely spend the exact same inflation-adjusted amount forever. Travel may be higher early in retirement, healthcare may rise later, and a household may trim optional spending after a market decline. Guardrails, percentage-of-balance methods, and spending floors are different approaches—not automatic upgrades.
The paid household report can compare a steady lifestyle with a flexible scenario and show the effect by year. AI can translate a plain-language question such as “What if we spend 10% less after age 80?” into approved parameters, but every financial number remains calculated by the deterministic engine.
What this calculator includes—and leaves out
Included
- Initial rate or desired annual withdrawal
- Inflation-adjusted spending in today’s dollars
- Annual investment fees
- Steady-return and seeded stress paths
- 3%, 4%, and 5% comparison
Not included here
- Federal or state income taxes
- Social Security and pensions
- RMDs and account withdrawal order
- Healthcare and long-term care
- Spouse, survivor, or legacy goals
4% rule calculator FAQ
What is the 4% rule for retirement?
The 4% rule is a retirement-spending guideline: withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation. It is not a promise that every portfolio will last.
How much can I withdraw from $500,000 using the 4% rule?
A 4% initial withdrawal from $500,000 is $20,000 in the first year, or about $1,667 per month before tax. Other income such as Social Security or a pension would be separate.
How much can I withdraw from $1 million?
At a 4% starting rate, $1 million supports a $40,000 first-year withdrawal, or about $3,333 per month before tax. The guideline normally increases that dollar withdrawal with inflation in later years.
Does the 4% rule mean withdrawing 4% of the current balance every year?
No. The classic method starts with 4% of the original balance and then adjusts the withdrawal amount for inflation. Taking 4% of the current balance each year is a different variable-spending method.
Is 4% still safe for a 30-year retirement?
No fixed percentage is universally safe. Retirement length, fees, taxes, asset mix, inflation, market returns, and spending flexibility all matter. This calculator shows scenarios and stress-test frequencies, not a guarantee.
What changes if retirement lasts 40 years?
A longer horizon exposes the portfolio to more withdrawals, inflation, fees, and poor return sequences. A rate that looks resilient over 25 or 30 years can look materially weaker over 40 years.
Does this calculator include Social Security and taxes?
No. The public calculator isolates portfolio withdrawals so the tradeoff is easy to see. The household Snapshot can combine withdrawals with Social Security, pensions, taxes, healthcare, a spouse, and changing spending.
Why can early market losses be so damaging?
Withdrawals force a retiree to sell more shares after losses, leaving fewer assets to participate in a recovery. This is called sequence-of-returns risk; the order of returns can matter even when the long-run average is identical.
Research and investor-education sources
- William P. Bengen / Financial Planning Association: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data
- FINRA: Managing Your Retirement Portfolio
- FINRA: Understanding Investment Risk
- Investor.gov: How Fees and Expenses Affect Your Investment Portfolio
- Clear Nest Egg: How Long Will My Retirement Savings Last?
Educational use only. This calculator is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. “Safe” is the common search term, not a guarantee. Results depend on user-selected assumptions, apply withdrawals at the start of each year, and exclude taxes, other income, healthcare, and household-specific decisions. Past market results do not predict future performance.
One rate is not a retirement plan
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